How long before all electric?

[r1limited]

With eletrcic bike now becoming more a reality, KTM, Yamaha, HD and others major OEMS now tossing options on the table we have Zero, Alta and more who have been playing the game for awhile.  Is it time to hold on to your gas varients as thiese will go the way side soon?  I for one will not be selling any of mine.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113971_electric-motorcycle-news-tacita-electric-cruiser-energica-ktm-alta-diginow-fast-charging
 

New electric motorcycles have recently come onto the market, powered by new technologies in batteries, motors, and charging that make them more capable than their predecessors on a variety of fronts.

Italian company Tacita sells several models of electric motorcycle, including street and off-road bikes, like many other electric motorcycle manufacturers. 

But now the company is breaking away from naked, off-road, and sport bikes by bringing a cruiser to the European market. 

The Tacita T-Cruise seems to have all of the features we have been asking for except one. It offers three battery options: a 7.5-kilowatt-hour version for around town, a mid-range 15-kwh model, and a long-range 27-kwh version.

 

[cyow5]

Judging how late they adopted widespread use of catalytic converters and electronic fuel injection,  you don't have anything to fear for quite a long time. Especially when looking at how much more sensitive bikes are to price than cars. A car can easily have enough options to pay for another bike entirely and yet Tesla is the only one being "successful". I use quotes because despite being widespread, they are still tanking. 

[AlbatrossCafe]

Yeah... "I'm not selling any of mine" is pretty rash. You will be hoarding gas bikes if you ever want to get anything new in the next 20 years.

 

Zeros are a bit more affordable but lack range. A lot of the bikes in that article are $15k-$30k. Until they can make an electric bike that does 0-60 in <4.5 seconds, has 130+ mile range, and retails for $12k or less, they will not sell very many. The FZ itself can do what I mentioned above and is $7.5k brand new. It's hard to compete with gas engines like that.

 

I'd be more afraid of driverless car laws outlawing human driving (and thereby motorcycling) before gas motorcycles get replaced by only electric ones.

 

 

[duenan]

Its funny because when these boards first were up back in 2014 we were having this convo.

 

It still hasn't reached a point where we are there.  Not yet.  Maybe another 10 years.

[robbo10]

I like the performance of electric. I do not like limited range or getting stuck in the middle of nowhere with NO means of progress. Even more than now our rides would have to be from one refill point to another rather than to a desired destination, with enough time for a meal while you wait. And then there's the charging point rage (building while I consume my meal).  I wonder if emissions from producing the electricity would be much less than my frugal MT's usage. I do not like a heavyweight either. 

[topazsparrow]

7 minutes ago, robbo10 said:

I like the performance of electric. I do not like limited range or getting stuck in the middle of nowhere with NO means of progress. Even more than now our rides would have to be from one refill point to another rather than to a desired destination, with enough time for a meal while you wait. And then there's the charging point rage (building while I consume my meal).  I wonder if emissions from producing the electricity would be much less than my frugal MT's usage. I do not like a heavyweight either. 

Large scale power generation (not coal mind you) will always be less pollution than our bikes joule for joule.

 

Batteries have some inherent environmental costs associated with them though, so I'd be curious to see how long it would take to "break even" on that front. Maybe we'll see super-capacitors used on bikes instead. It would solve the charge delay issues, but result in less range (which many bikers are accustomed to struggling with anyway... *Cough* FZ-10 *Cough*).

[bornagainbiker]

I would consider buying an electric bike right now if I could get comparable performance, range, power etc, for a reasonable price.  Here in Canada I can buy a new FZ-07 for around $8,300.00 and a comparable electric bike would cost me $20,000.00 plus.  Given the current state of things on the electric front, I'm guessing it will be at least a decade before electric bikes become competitive enough to start replacing their gas powered counterparts.

 

[r1limited]

4 hours ago, cyow5 said:

Judging how late they adopted widespread use of catalytic converters and electronic fuel injection,  you don't have anything to fear for quite a long time. Especially when looking at how much more sensitive bikes are to price than cars. A car can easily have enough options to pay for another bike entirely and yet Tesla is the only one being "successful". I use quotes because despite being widespread, they are still tanking. 

Telsa is not exactly successful, they have a huge burn rate, the funny thing is its FED subsidies by the Good Ol US Tax payers Genious

[patrolus]

tesla is a joke....or , how long is a piece of string? --none of the big car makers feels even threatened by tesla......I think we will see the e market start to move fast, very soon! VW just decided to show mr. musk how its done and is investing 3 billion euros into a new e car line..... BMW is far ahead of vw- and mercedes has a chinese subside that builds e cars only. Pretty sure it wont be long before the big players (especially honda) will show us good e bikes. 

[crsnhppr]

Soon I hope. The power delivery of electric powered Is massive compared to a combustion engine of the same size. When electric RC helicopters came into being soon after nitro heli’s have become almost obsolete because the power output and efficiency were idk 2 to 4

times what the normal nitro engines were doing. 

 

 

If they they can figure out longer lasting, lighter batteries with more

recharge cycles it’ll be tits. Maybe 10 years? The tech is still waiting on next gen batteries which is the hold up currently. 

[r1limited]

1 hour ago, patrolus said:

tesla is a joke....or , how long is a piece of string? --none of the big car makers feels even threatened by tesla......I think we will see the e market start to move fast, very soon! VW just decided to show mr. musk how its done and is investing 3 billion euros into a new e car line..... BMW is far ahead of vw- and mercedes has a chinese subside that builds e cars only. Pretty sure it wont be long before the big players (especially honda) will show us good e bikes. 

BMW just got shut down for selling the i car here, some bullshit reason

[Cruizin]

Tesla. The only reason Tesla is still going is the Big 3 US car makers want to let Tesla pay for all of the R&D and testing and super charger install all over the country. As soon as the Big 3 want in, they will call their buddies in Washington DC and the tax breaks will end for Tesla. I think that is unfair, but thats the way things work in the USA. Ask Preston Tucker and Howard Hughes. Wait, their dead. 

 

Zero. Test rode a couple of their bikes. Had a freaking blast. Tons of power, no revving needed, just tons of power as soon as you twist the throttle. And silent, just a whirring noise and it was so cool to be able to "hear" traction. Cool to be able to hear the tires. especially when sliding the rear tire. I got tp the point where I could tell when I was about to break loose, just from hearing it. That would be useful in the canyons. 

But then I looked down and the guage said only 20% power left. After like an hour of riding. 

 

The battery technology still isn't there.  Unless you live in west Texas or AZ flat land with no hills, the battery will leave you stranded somewhere. Good for riding some where close where you can plugin, but that doesnt work for me. 

 

Alta builds a hell of a dirtbike, if ya only ride MX and have a generator to plug into after each run. You aren't taking an Alta into the mountains unless you have batteries stashed all over up in the hills. 

 

Im not sure if Zero is gonna make it much longer. The battery tech just isn't progressing into the factories yet, and it will be a while before it does. 

 

 

[patrolus]

1 hour ago, Cruizin said:

Tesla. The only reason Tesla is still going is the Big 3 US car makers want to let Tesla pay for all of the R&D and testing and super charger install all over the country. As soon as the Big 3 want in, they will call their buddies in Washington DC and the tax breaks will end for Tesla. I think that is unfair, but thats the way things work in the USA. Ask Preston Tucker and Howard Hughes. Wait, their dead. 

 

Zero. Test rode a couple of their bikes. Had a freaking blast. Tons of power, no revving needed, just tons of power as soon as you twist the throttle. And silent, just a whirring noise and it was so cool to be able to "hear" traction. Cool to be able to hear the tires. especially when sliding the rear tire. I got tp the point where I could tell when I was about to break loose, just from hearing it. That would be useful in the canyons. 

But then I looked down and the guage said only 20% power left. After like an hour of riding. 

 

The battery technology still isn't there.  Unless you live in west Texas or AZ flat land with no hills, the battery will leave you stranded somewhere. Good for riding some where close where you can plugin, but that doesnt work for me. 

 

Alta builds a hell of a dirtbike, if ya only ride MX and have a generator to plug into after each run. You aren't taking an Alta into the mountains unless you have batteries stashed all over up in the hills. 

 

Im not sure if Zero is gonna make it much longer. The battery tech just isn't progressing into the factories yet, and it will be a while before it does. 

 

 

yeah sad that the development of batteries got shut down by the oil cartels in the 80ies and 90ies. could be so much ahead by now.- Samsungs new graphen-popcorn batteries will be available in a few years ----but thats still years and not weeks......

[stev74]

I wouldn't be surprised if fuel-cell batteries will be used in the near future instead of lithium batteries.
In general I think the switch to electric cars will take longer than expected.
An electric engine is in any possible way superior but like we all know the batteries are the "problem".
If I remember correct for motorcycles at Pikes Peak an electric bike already owns the record.

But having said that I will enjoy as long as possible driving with gasoline bikes.
It's something special. It's engineering perfection. Hundreds of moving parts, everything makes his little noise.
It only needs a bit of liquid and it moves. It's a kind of art.

[Zephyr]

The move towards electric bikes are simply one generation away.  It will come in our kids lifetime.  The young generation is becoming conditioned to think towards electric vehicles as the "future" and the "answer".  I would love an affordable e-bike comparable to the FZ/MT-07.  Range has always been the sticking point for me.  I'm nervous on the MT-07 going for a long leisurely cruise exploring side streets, etc until I decide to carry reserve gas.

[norcal616]

gonna be a good 15yrs + before its gonna be norm to buy a electric car...Powersports 5-7yrs- this is a good thing, no noise which allows more chances for new tracks and etc...

 

as for heavy industry... gonna be a long time till its proven reliable and robust to survive...

 

aviation is a wild card... 

[faffi]

In 2015, 18% of all new cars sold in Norway were electric. The most sold car model here was the eGolf. In 2013 and 2014, Tesla S was the biggest selling car in Norway. 

 

Why do they sell so well? Because they come with a bunch of benefits;

- no taxes on the import (petrol driven, a Tesla S would probably cost 4 times as much)

- no road tax

- no road toll

- no ferry toll

- no parking fees in several parking lots

- allowed to use the bus lane

 

The problem with battery vehicles is that they overall pollute more than gasoline driven vehicles. But the good thing is that they pollute very little locally. The also go like stink. And the Tesla has a range of over 300 miles, so quite useful for most.

 

I guess many of us will retain an affection for the old petrol engines, just like many retained a love for living horses after the car began to show up. Yet the future likely is free from petrol heads, although they will be here for at least another decade, probably longer.

 

As to self-driving cars, they will no doubt come. And if I see past the joy of driving and riding myself, it makes total sense. There will be fewer accidents, they can - and will - drive bumper to bumper to save energy and utilize the road network 100%. We just have to come to peace with vehicles solving our quest for transportation only.

[cyow5]

14 hours ago, r1limited said:

Telsa is not exactly successful, they have a huge burn rate, the funny thing is its FED subsidies by the Good Ol US Tax payers Genious

Hence why I said they are tanking but only appear successful due to sales volume in metro areas. 

[r1limited]

When the TT started a electric class, I remember the old school wrenches laughing and caring on about electric bikes.  Now we see the performance gains and now we see a electric class following many mainstream circuits.  MotoGP is announced this as well for 2019.  So you know full well the tech is going to jump a few steps PDQ.  Everyone talks about that battery break through and well we still wait.... If only they can harvest the power of the Kyber Crystal

[duenan]

The true biggest hurdle for electric motorcycles is passion.

 

Passion seems to be a fundamental motivator in motorcycling and e motors have about 2% passion.

[gregjet]

THE best current place for electrics is in circuit racing. Massive power and you can fetch the bike if it runs out of power. Races can be taylored to the range of the vehicles. Batteries can be exchanged after a race then back out for the next one.

What will happen with this is racing will do what it did for originally for ICE's. Everything has to be a efficient as it can be for racing and lack thereof shows up quickly. That will drive improvement faster than anything.

Many people discovering many tiny improvements as well as big steps. I for one would love to race electrics. Batteries is only ONE of the improvements that will be made. Zero's biggest problem is that they are not aerodynamic enough. The vast majority of inefficiency in motorcycles is aerodynamic. THE most aero of motoGP bikes is like a parachute compared to even an ordinary motorcar in terms of form drag. The desire for "naked" bikes is a backward aestetic. The limit on your top speed on most motorcycles is form drag. It is the reason for the "manga" fairings current on jap bikes. They are purposely made to limit your top speed by increasing the drag. When a manufacturer makes a true aero bike ( ie the Hya) everyone whinges how ugly it is. Sorry but that is what smooth airflow at speed looks like. If you like "naked" it is because you want to go slower.

Electric will bypass the noise problems that tracks suffer from as well.

Personally it think the next step will be a properly designed hybrid diesel/electric with the ICE acting as a charger. Possibly a supercharged fuel injected 2 stroke (NO crankcase fuel/oil). A single or double speed ICE can be made VERY efficient and much lighter. Then the battery pack can be much smaller and lighter . Especially for touring bikes. This is not new tech. Most of the worlds trains for long haul are diesel/electric and have been for decades.

Then as said above some sort of refuelable electric like fuel cell maybe.

A hydrogen ICE maybe but as a charging motor more like for the same reasons as diesel electric.

Other alcohols perhaps. methanol and ethanol are pretty poor energy density, but longer chain ones get progressively more dense. Could even engineer plants to produce them. Yes they have poison property but petrol( gas) is actually as nasty now. and is more carcenogenic in the long term.

 

duenan,

Passion is not as simple as it appears. I remember slotcars when I was a kid and the passion those little electric motors precipitated. Racing breeds passion. Doesn't matter what you are racing.

I imagine if I had a Zero I could play with up and down the mountain I used to live beneath and mod to my hearts content ( ok I am NEVER content), that I would be pretty passionate about it.

 

[MT27]

Long but good.  

 

[firstyammerha]

An ebike would probably work for me since I ride locally only about 100 miles a month.I'm seeing charging stations popping up locally at government buildings and large shopping centers but the hang up is the time it takes to charge the battery. One of the car magazines like Car and Driver  recently did a cross country trip in a Tesla which was revealing if any one's considering buying an electric car. Then look at the cost of installing a charging station in your home garage. Pretty expensive. Maybe a hybrid would be the better choice.

[Cruizin]

My coworker just bought a Zero. It get's to 50 mph fast as hell and then bikes pass him, but in town thats just enough to surprise a lot of gas riders.

Perfect bike for commuting to work and running errands around town. No oil, no gas, no filters. Just plug it in at night is about all ya gotta do. 

[gregjet]

I would love to get my hands on a Zero and mod it . Particularly fair it. Most of your power goes into wind resistance and the zero with rider is a parachute. No more Zeros in Aus though. The company has pulled out. Too hard to sell in a place where everything is so far apart I guess.